Ups and downs with Deng Xiaoping's Reforms in China
The China Forum seminar on Wednesday 30 October 2024 was given by Professor (Professor of History, The London School of Economics and Political Science).
Professor Deng’s lecture consisted of three parts: (i) Mao Zedong’s legacy, (ii) Deng Xiaoping’s success, and (iii) the sustainability of the development model adopted under Deng Xiaoping. In the first part, Professor Deng analysed Mao’s legacy in relation to class struggle and China’s ‘resource endowments trap’. He used Acemoglu and Robinson’s ‘state failure’ framework to analyse China’s development path under Chairman Mao. The second part focused on Deng Xiaoping’s achievement in bringing an end to class struggle, escaping China’s ‘resource endowments trap’, and rebuilding state-capacity. Professor Deng argued that under Deng Xiaoping China ‘got the prices wrong, but did so for all the right reasons’. The third part analysed China’s economic prospects in the post-Covid world. Professor Deng considers that the covid pandemic exposed basic flaws in the Chinese development model. The Covid pandemic affected the global economy deeply and contributed to a decline in China’s economic growth rate. Professor Deng considers that China’s supply-driven economic model, which involved ‘getting prices wrong’, helped to produce China’s foreign trade surplus. It resulted in a ‘zero-sum game’ in China’s trade relations with the West. The US-led trade war against China was a logical outcome of China’s development model.
The issues addressed in the Q&A included: (i) whether Professor Deng’s view of China’s current situation is excessively pessimistic; (ii) whether the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated China’s transition from the old model of cheap labour and low technology to a new model of high quality development and high technology, which is resulting in a sustainable path for China and contributes to global sustainable development; (iii) whether Prof Deng underestimated China’s achievements, especially in areas of national capacity building, education and technical training, which were crucial to China’s development success; (iv) how to properly evaluate Mao Zedong’s achievements, including increasing life expectancy from just over 30 to 60 years of age; and (v) whether other developing countries can adopt the Chinese model of supply-driven development.
Professor Kent Deng's research interests and writing includes the rise of the literati in the economic life of pre-modern China, the maritime economic history of pre-modern China, and the economic role of the Chinese peasantry.
Kent Deng gained his PhD from the School of Economics and Commerce, La Trobe University, Australia, having previously studied at both the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Capital Normal University in Beijing. He has taught at LSE since 1995 and prior to this was a lecturer at Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand and Flinders University, South Australia. He has held visiting Professorships at numerous Universities including in China, Germany, Italy and Taiwan.
Professor Deng has published extensively. His recent books include: (with Dr Yazhuo Zheng) (London: Palgrave Macmillan Press, 2018); (London: World Scientific Press and Imperial College Press, 2015); and (London and New York: Routledge, 2011).
